There is a general feeling that things are bad due to how President Zuma
and his click are running our country. I comment here on that and how, even
though I agree, it is something that can’t only been blamed on him as the ANC isn’t
run by one person. He does, however, wield significant control and as such must
be seen as leading this sentiment. South Africa has always been a highly political
nation, so let’s look at what is shaping 2014 into an exciting election year.
It all started back in 2007 when Zuma came into power. One can say that
it was the way he came into power that set this tone. The recall of Thabo Mbeki
created a climate in which respect for recognized hierarchies began to be undermined.
Zuma can’t be surprised by this monster which he has created when he gets booed
at public events. It was his & his supporters that began this disrespect
towards those in power. More evidence of this was displayed at Human Rights
events held in Soweto recently. It is shameful that our politics has descended
to this level and let’s hope it doesn’t become violent like it was in the late
90’s.
Other emerging markets such as Russia, Brazil, Venezuela and Turkey are concurrent
examples of inner turmoil. Some have even experience mass anti &
pro-government protests. Creating worse situations then what we have
experienced here. Through international media you will see how their political
institutions are being put to the test. Turkey is becoming a prime example of
how power corrupts to the extent that leaders think they are more important than
those that put them in power. Imagine trying to ban Twitter? Their current
leadership came in on a wave of democratic principles and governance when it
replaced the old order.
These three countries have a direct influence on our own as they are, like
SA, seen as emerging economies. The
outfall of all of this is that it has a negative impact on how investors
calculate the risk inherent in investing in SA.
Back to our own political situation: I had the pleasure of listening to
a talk by Nic Borain (NB), a political analyst. He offered some interesting
insight. His one comment, that Zuma is an Induna - a leader or commander. This means
that he doesn’t take kindly to being told what to do and so he essentially does
what he wants. It is this manner that is isolating the educated, urban voter.
He has also empowered his close friends and family members using his position –
the Guptas, that Architect, his family. They have a vested interest in keeping
him in power and as such are encouraging him to stay for this his second term
as president.
Some interesting points raised by Mr Borain - There are moves to bring
financial control back under the Minister of Finance and Treasury. When Zuma
came into power he farmed some of these duties out to the Department of Trade
& Industry (DTI) & Economic Development Department (EDD). (The EDD is,
for example, responsible for the New Growth Path & the Youth Wage Bill). The
watering down of the DTI & EDD’s powers by of a more coordinated approach
controlled by Treasury is probably a positive move. This is also because Treasury,
who is responsible for our budget, needs to control spending or it could
balloon uncontrollably.
The political parties in SA:
I have always been a fan (in the broadest sense) of Julius Malema. I
have respect for his never say die attitude and his humble, grass roots
upbringing in the trade union movement. All those that played him for a fool
have been found wanting as he is an astute politician. The EFF is a mix of
strong personalities and its economic wish list is a nothing more than
electioneering (no basis in reality). In its current incarnation, I don’t see
it lasting till the next elections.
ANC's answer to EFF would be to bolster empowerment legislation and broaden
policies around this to woo lost voters. This could buy back their educated,
city based support that they have lost in the last few years. This is
especially true in Soweto where the DA under Mmaimane has apparently gained widespread
support. You may not know but Mmaimane & his family hail from Soweto. As a
homegrown resident he could command a loyal following from Mzansi.
The ANC will focus on the National Development Plan (NDP) to gain votes
and growth. It has been said that the IMF and foreign investors favour this far
reaching and comprehensive policy. If this policy is implemented effectively it
will hold good results for our country and economy.
The NDP along with the Youth wage bill has effectively alienated the ANC’s “in house” COSATU/NUMSA union support. In general any alliance that existed previously is beginning to fall apart. With its tacit support for Amplat’s suing of AMCU, the ANC is creating an environment for a complete split with organised labour in general. We have already seen this with NUMSA going on its own and also with the rise of AMCU. One could possibly see the EFF being sucked into the breakaway unions, forming a new party outside of the alliance. Even if the EFF’s economic policies are completely unrealistic, they are labour friendly and this is where the unions would rather be. This is a worrying prospect as it could create critical mass and staying power for the EFF’s madcap policies. On the other hand, the union turbulence might be a positive development - small and big enterprise need to be able to be flexible with their workforce. This is not going to happen with the unions wielding their power within the Alliance.
The ANC does have a problem if it loses its majority in provinces such
as Gauteng (GP). This would mean that it would effectively lose control as it could
not push its agenda. It would then have to look to coalitions to ensure
continuity. But forming a coalition with smaller parties would be difficult as
the competition, the DA, who would never ally itself with the ruling party.
Besides the EFF there are no other parties that could get the necessary
significant percentage in GP to provide the needed backing. Nic Borain in his discussion suggested that if
a DA takeover does occur in GP, power would revert to the street and those that
command support therefrom. Effectively creating a Cairo or Kiev type scenario
where it is the mobilised mass that control policy.
The ANC as a brand is deteriorating due to Zuma’s personality.
There are persons within the party that are looking to remove him and offer him
a smooth exit. This is a likely scenario if the ANC loses support in this
election as the ANC elders and the NEC (National Executive Committee) will not
like a further erosion of their majority. The ANC’s support has decreased in three
elections in a row, so any continuation of this trend will ensure Zuma’s removal.
It remains to be seen if this is a smooth or volatile exit as his personal
support base will resist this change. They would not want to give up the power
that they have amassed.
The EFF’s campaigning has been effective and widespread. They are pushing
key points and have captured emotions that the disaffected black aspirational
class is feeling. This space has been created by ANC policies and Zuma’s Induna
mentality. The EFF has caught on to what people want and especially what they
want from their rulers. Julius’ persona is selling this. Their votes will,
also, come from those ANC members that are alienated by current policies and personalities.
They may not support the EFF afterwards but for this election it is their only
option outside of other smaller parties.
My take on this is that the DA will consolidate itself further in the
Western Cape and may take another province but this is a long shot. They are
still seen as a white, pro-capitalist movement and in our country’s short history;
old allegiances are hard to break. However this is changing as the majority
start to realise that their ANC is no longer the movement for the people. If
there isn’t a quantum shift within the ANC’s upper echelon to bring back
respect, trust and order within its ranks I see the forthcoming election as heralding
a new age in SA politics. If the ANC sees the writing on the wall and returns
to its original values we may yet see a reversion to the status quo but I feel
it is too late. Nkandla was the turning point and South Africans are growing weary of excess.
